INTERNATIONAL FLYING BALANCE
Shared Growth Shared Opportunity
In Delta’s Foreign Carrier Partners we examined the growing number of partnerships Delta is entering into with foreign airlines. While Delta’s JVs and investments in foreign carriers have the potential to grow both Delta capacity and Delta jobs, they can also be misused to outsource Delta flying to those foreign partners, reducing organic Delta widebody growth and career opportunities for Delta pilots. The Delta Pilot Working Agreements (contract) seek to provide protections to prevent outsourcing of Delta flying both domestically and internationally and protect Delta jobs and careers.
There are many different ways to measure if Delta’s increasing number of JVs and investments in foreign carriers have actually resulted in corresponding growth at Delta.
Scope and Delta Pilot Careers examined the Delta fleet and Delta pilot jobs over the past 10 years. As Delta increased various partnerships with foreign airlines, the number of widebody aircraft and widebody pilot positions declined, even as the number of total mainline aircraft and pilots increased.
Of course, there are other ways to measure increases in flying beyond number of widebody aircraft and widebody pilots. Two different ways the airline industry measures flying are by looking at capacity and block hours.
Shared Growth Shared Opportunity
In Delta’s JVs and Ownership Stakes we examined the growing number of partnerships Delta is entering into with foreign airlines. While Delta’s JVs and investments in foreign carriers have the potential to grow both Delta capacity and Delta jobs, they can also be misused to outsource Delta flying to those foreign partners, reducing organic Delta widebody growth and career opportunities for Delta pilots. The Delta Pilot Working Agreements (contract) seek to provide protections to prevent outsourcing of Delta flying both domestically and internationally and protect Delta jobs and careers.
There are many different ways to measure if Delta’s increasing number of JVs and investments in foreign carriers have actually resulted in corresponding growth at Delta.
Scope and Delta Pilot Careers examined the Delta fleet and Delta pilot jobs over the past 10 years. As Delta increased various partnerships with foreign airlines, the number of widebody aircraft and widebody pilot positions declined, even as the number of total mainline aircraft and pilots increased.
Of course, there are other ways to measure increases in flying beyond number of widebody aircraft and widebody pilots. Two different ways the airline industry measures flying are by looking at capacity and block hours.
DELTA AND PARTNERS CAPACITY
Passenger Capacity, It’s All about the Seat Miles
Passenger capacity is a measurement of flying that captures both distance flown and size of aircraft operating. A fundamental unit of production for passenger airlines, capacity is typically expressed in Available Seat Miles (ASM) and refers to one aircraft seat flown one mile, whether occupied or not. Seat miles are calculated by multiplying the available seats for a given plane by the number of miles that plane will be flying for a given flight. For example, an aircraft with 100 passenger seats flown at a distance of 100 miles, generates 10,000 available seat miles.
Most of Delta’s share of flying with foreign partners is measured on a capacity basis. Changes in capacity over time between Delta and partners can indicate how flying has shifted between Delta and partners. One aspect that can have a big impact on capacity is changes to aircraft gauge over time. Since the geography and, therefore, distance between the U.S. and a foreign partner’s home country is fixed, the two of the most fundamental inputs into what drives changes in capacity are the number of flights and the size of the aircraft flying.
Over the past 10 years, Delta and foreign partners airlines have been making changes to the types of aircraft in their widebody fleets. These changes to the size of aircraft performing the flying have a direct effect on capacity even when there has not been a change in the number of flights.
Partner Airline Capacity Neutral Fleet Replacement
Example Air France: Same Capacity, Increased Block Hours
Fleet trends between Delta and Partners show a pattern. Up until recently, Delta’s foreign partners operated aircraft much larger than Delta’s, including the very large gauge 777-300, 747-8i, and A380 aircraft in their fleets. Recently Air France retired its A380s and Virgin Atlantic and KLM have retired their 747s. Korean Air and Asian have announced the retirement of their A380 within the next five years. As Delta’s foreign partners renew their fleets with more modern smaller 787 and A350 aircraft, their average gauge is trending down. That means for the same overall international long-haul capacity (ASM), Delta’s partners will require more 787 and A350 aircraft and more pilots and more block hours to produce the same capacity as produced by very large gauge aircraft like the A380. If the balance between Delta and partner flying is measured in capacity, this increase in flights, would not require an increase in Delta flights.
Delta Capacity Neutral Fleet Replacement
Example Delta: Same Capacity, Fewer Block Hours
On the other hand, Delta has traditionally flown smaller gauge widebody aircraft with the 767-300ER as the mainstay of the fleet. The long-term fleet replacement trend is to add larger gauge A330-900 and A350-900 aircraft to the fleet as smaller gauge 767-300ERs are retired. If the flying balance between Delta and partners is measured in capacity, Delta’s up-gauging will require fewer A330 and A350 aircraft and fewer pilots to produce the same capacity as when 767-300ERs were performing most of the flying.
DELTA AND PARTNERS BLOCK HOURS
Block Hours Measure Pilot Jobs
Block hours is a measure of the time from the moment the aircraft door closes at departure of a revenue flight until the moment the aircraft door opens at the arrival gate following its landing. Block hours are the industry standard measure of aircraft utilization and pilot productivity.
Block hours are further differentiated by aircraft block hours and pilot block hours. A 10-hour flight from ATL to AMS with a 3-pilot crew generates 10 aircraft block hours and 30 pilot block hours. As a measurement, block hours are the most closely related measurement of flying to pilot jobs and most closely related to how pilots are paid.
Delta’s Fleet Renewal With Larger Gauge Aircraft Has an Affect on Block Hours
As pointed out before, most of Delta’s share of flying with foreign partners is measured on a capacity basis. In the past, the majority of Delta’s widebody international flying was operated by smaller gauge or lower capacity 767-300ER. When compared to foreign partner airlines, Delta had to fly more 767-300ERs to produce an equivalent capacity. As a result, Delta operated more aircraft on more flights generating a larger share of aircraft and pilot block hours when compared to partner carriers.
As Delta renews the widebody fleet with larger gauge aircraft, it takes fewer aircraft and fewer pilot block hours to generate the same capacity. Even if flying was evenly shared on a capacity basis, the fleet change alone will require fewer Delta block hours, resulting in fewer aircraft and pilot block hours.
If the balance of flying between Delta and foreign partners is only measured in capacity and not block hours, long-term, there will be less opportunity for Delta pilots to advance their carriers. This trend is shown by examining the percentage of Delta pilots in widebody categories over the span from 2009 – 2019.
Delta Block Hours vs Partner Block Hours
Delta Block Hours Compared with Partner Block Hours
The chart above compares Delta and partner airline widebody block hours over time. The block hour trends show a pattern that reflects fleet changes over time. Delta has traditionally flown smaller gauge widebody aircraft with the mainstay of the fleet, the 767-300ER. The long-term fleet replacement trend at Delta is to up gauge the fleet. Larger gauge A330-900 and A350-900 aircraft are being added to the fleet replacing smaller gauge 767-300ER. From a capacity standpoint, that means that Delta requires fewer A330 and A350 aircraft and fewer pilots to produce the same capacity as when 767-300ERs performed most of the flying. Or, said another way, by up gauging the long-haul fleet, Delta can achieve capacity growth without adding additional widebody pilots.
DELTA AND PARTNERS REBUILD
A Multi-Speed Recovery for Domestic and International Flying
As airlines around the world rebuild from the COVID pandemic, they first turn to those markets that offer the highest opportunities for revenue. In 2022, the US airlines are in the enviable position of having a largely recovered domestic market. While demand for business travel remains depressed, leisure travel demand has at times outpaced the available supply, and this robust demand has helped Delta achieve profitability in Q4 2021. With widebody aircraft idled from depressed long-haul demand, Delta is redeploying these aircraft to provide additional domestic capacity in select markets.
In contrast, few international carriers can tap into a significantly restored domestic market in their home country, relying largely on their widebody fleet and international flights to provide much-needed revenue. Some carriers are focusing on cargo-only flights and although an exception, Korean Air has been so successful that they achieved profitability from this model. But for most long-haul international airlines, few markets remain that have modest demand and few travel restrictions. As a result, when the executive order that banned non-us citizens from entering the US was lifted in late 2021, many foreign airlines made rebuilding their US networks a top priority for 2022.
In February 2022, Delta published a pilot AE bid with few widebody positions and mainly focused on adding career opportunities that emphasize domestic narrowbody flying. Some Delta long-haul international routes have also yet to restart or have seen their resumption postponed.